In his article “Everything Old Is New Again” (Words & Music, Fall 2006), Paul Spurgeon, SOCAN’s general counsel, referenced the award-winning book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More (Hyperion, 2006), by Chris Anderson, editor-in-chief of Wired magazine. The book’s genesis began with Anderson’s Wired article in October 2004.

If, in the last four years, you have attended any music-business seminars or conferences, or have read related articles, books or blogs, then you’ve probably have come across the term “the Long Tail.” Yet I often encounter creators and their business representatives who are not familiar with the term or the concept. While the theory can be applied to many areas, Anderson repeatedly focuses on the entertainment industry as an example in action.

The FAQ section of Anderson’s blog states: “The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy are increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of ‘hits’ (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online, there is now less need to lump products and consumers into one-size-fits-all containers. In an era without the constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare.”

If Anderson’s conclusions are correct, then the Long Tail theory is a trend to be aware of, as it may have an important bearing on your potential for earnings, especially if you are working in a genre that is on the fringes of the current mainstream — or off the map altogether.

Recently, though, Anita Elberse’s article “Should You Invest in the Long Tail?” (Harvard Business Review, July 2008) challenged Anderson’s assumptions and conclusions. Elberse, who is associate professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, notes: “When I differentiate between artists on smaller, independent labels and those on major labels, I find that the former gain some market share at the tail end of the curve as a result of the shift to digital markets. However, that advantage quickly disappears as we move up the curve. A more significant trend is that independent artists have actually lost share among the more popular titles to superstar artists on the major labels. (These results hold when I control for the number and type of titles that artists brought to market.) Thus digital channels may be further strengthening the position of a select group of winners.”

So will the Long Tail concept impact your future business as a creator and rights owner? I suppose only time will tell whether the Long Tail is as valid and important a trend as Anderson maintains.